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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://ir.nhri.org.tw/handle/3990099045/12904
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| Title: | The effect of preventing subclinical transmission on the containment of COVID-19: Mathematical modeling and experience in Taiwan |
| Authors: | Tsou, HH;Cheng, YC;Yuan, HY;Hsu, YT;Wu, HY;Lee, FJ;Hsiung, CA;Chen, WJ;Sytwu, HK;Wu, SI;Shih, SM;Wen, TH;Kuo, SC |
| Contributors: | Institute of Population Health Sciences;National Mosquito-Borne Diseases Control Research Center;Center for Neuropsychiatric Research;National Institute of Infectious Diseases and Vaccinology |
| Abstract: | The control strategies preventing subclinical transmission differed among countries. A stochastic transmission model was used to assess the potential effectiveness of control strategies at controlling the COVID-19 outbreak. Three strategies included lack of prevention of subclinical transmission (Strategy A), partial prevention using testing with different accuracy (Strategy B) and complete prevention by isolating all at-risk people (Strategy C, Taiwan policy). The high probability of containing COVID-19 in Strategy C is observed in different scenario, had varied in the number of initial cases (5, 20, and 40), the reproduction number (1.5, 2, 2.5, and 3.5), the proportion of at-risk people being investigated (40%, 60%, 80%, to 90%), the delay from symptom onset to isolation (long and short), and the proportion of transmission that occurred before symptom onset (<1%, 15%, and 30%). Strategy C achieved probability of 80% under advantageous scenario, such as low number of initial cases and high coverage of epidemiological investigation but Strategy B and C rarely achieved that of 60%. Considering the unsatisfactory accuracy of current testing and insufficient resources, isolation of all at-risk people, as adopted in Taiwan, could be an effective alternative. |
| Date: | 2020-09 |
| Relation: | Contemporary Clinical Trials. 2020 Sep;96:Article number 106101. |
| Link to: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cct.2020.106101 |
| JIF/Ranking 2023: | http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=NHRI&SrcApp=NHRI_IR&KeyISSN=1551-7144&DestApp=IC2JCR |
| Cited Times(WOS): | https://www.webofscience.com/wos/woscc/full-record/WOS:000571518300008 |
| Cited Times(Scopus): | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=85089435668 |
| Appears in Collections: | [熊昭] 期刊論文
[吳秀英] 期刊論文
[鄒小蕙] 期刊論文
[其他] 期刊論文
[陳為堅] 期刊論文
[郭書辰] 期刊論文
[司徒惠康] 期刊論文
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| SCP85089435668.pdf | | 1612Kb | Adobe PDF | 350 | View/Open |
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