國家衛生研究院 NHRI:Item 3990099045/12904
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    题名: The effect of preventing subclinical transmission on the containment of COVID-19: Mathematical modeling and experience in Taiwan
    作者: Tsou, HH;Cheng, YC;Yuan, HY;Hsu, YT;Wu, HY;Lee, FJ;Hsiung, CA;Chen, WJ;Sytwu, HK;Wu, SI;Shih, SM;Wen, TH;Kuo, SC
    贡献者: Institute of Population Health Sciences;National Mosquito-Borne Diseases Control Research Center;Center for Neuropsychiatric Research;National Institute of Infectious Diseases and Vaccinology
    摘要: The control strategies preventing subclinical transmission differed among countries. A stochastic transmission model was used to assess the potential effectiveness of control strategies at controlling the COVID-19 outbreak. Three strategies included lack of prevention of subclinical transmission (Strategy A), partial prevention using testing with different accuracy (Strategy B) and complete prevention by isolating all at-risk people (Strategy C, Taiwan policy). The high probability of containing COVID-19 in Strategy C is observed in different scenario, had varied in the number of initial cases (5, 20, and 40), the reproduction number (1.5, 2, 2.5, and 3.5), the proportion of at-risk people being investigated (40%, 60%, 80%, to 90%), the delay from symptom onset to isolation (long and short), and the proportion of transmission that occurred before symptom onset (<1%, 15%, and 30%). Strategy C achieved probability of 80% under advantageous scenario, such as low number of initial cases and high coverage of epidemiological investigation but Strategy B and C rarely achieved that of 60%. Considering the unsatisfactory accuracy of current testing and insufficient resources, isolation of all at-risk people, as adopted in Taiwan, could be an effective alternative.
    日期: 2020-09
    關聯: Contemporary Clinical Trials. 2020 Sep;96:Article number 106101.
    Link to: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cct.2020.106101
    JIF/Ranking 2023: http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=NHRI&SrcApp=NHRI_IR&KeyISSN=1551-7144&DestApp=IC2JCR
    Cited Times(WOS): https://www.webofscience.com/wos/woscc/full-record/WOS:000571518300008
    Cited Times(Scopus): https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=85089435668
    显示于类别:[熊昭] 期刊論文
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