BACKGROUND: Symptoms of atopic disease start early in human life. Predicting risk for childhood asthma by early-life exposure would contribute to disease prevention. A birth cohort study was conducted to investigate early-life risk factors for childhood asthma and to develop a predictive model for the development of asthma. METHODS: National representative samples of newborn babies were obtained by multistage stratified systematic sampling from the 2005 Taiwan Birth Registry. Information on potential risk factors and children's health was collected by home interview when babies were 6 months old and 5 years old, respectively. Backward stepwise regression analysis was used to identify the risk factors for childhood asthma for predictive models that were used to calculate the probability of childhood asthma. RESULTS: A total of 19,192 children completed the study satisfactorily. Physician diagnosed-asthma was reported in 6.6% of 5-year-old children. Pre-pregnancy factors (parental atopy and socioeconomic status), perinatal factors (place of residence, exposure to indoor mold and painting/renovations during pregnancy), and postnatal factors (maternal postpartum depression and presence of atopic dermatitis before 6 months of age) were chosen for the predictive models, and the highest predicted probability of asthma in 5-year-old children was 68.1% in boys and 78.1% in girls; the lowest probability in boys and girls was 4.1% and 3.2%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This investigation provides a technique for predicting risk of childhood asthma that can be used to developing a preventive strategy against asthma.
Date:
2015-05
Relation:
Pediatric Allergy and Immunology. 2015 May ;26(3):272-279.
