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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://ir.nhri.org.tw/handle/3990099045/16252
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| Title: | Temporal change in minimum mortality temperature under changing climate: A multicountry multicommunity observational study spanning 1986–2015 |
| Authors: | Yang, D;Hashizume, M;Tobías, A;Honda, Y;Roye, D;Oh, J;Dang, TN;Kim, Y;Abrutzky, R;Guo, Y;Tong, S;Coelho, MDSZS;Saldiva, PHN;Lavigne, E;Correa, PM;Ortega, NV;Osorio, S;Kyselý, J;Urban, A;Orru, H;Indermitte, E;Jaakkola, J;Ryti, N;Pascal, M;Huber, V;Schneider, A;Katsouyanni, K;Analitis, A;Entezari, A;Mayvaneh, F;Goodman, P;Zeka, A;Michelozzi, P;de’Donato, F;Alahmad, B;Diaz, MH;Valencia, CDLC;Overcenco, A;Houthuijs, D;Ameling, C;Rao, S;Nunes, B;Madureira, J;Holo-Bâc, IH;Scovronick, N;Acquaotta, F;Kim, H;Lee, W;Íñiguez, C;Forsberg, B;Vicedo-Cabrera, AM;Ragettli, MS;Guo, YLL;Pan, SC;Li, S;Sera, F;Zanobetti, A;Schwartz, J;Armstrong, B;Gasparrini, A;Chung, Y |
| Contributors: | National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences |
| Abstract: | Background: The minimum mortality temperature (MMT) or MMT percentile (MMTP) is an indicator of population susceptibility to nonoptimum temperatures. MMT and MMTP change over time; however, the changing directions show region-wide heterogeneity. We examined the heterogeneity of temporal changes in MMT and MMTP across multiple communities and in multiple countries. Methods: Daily time-series data for mortality and ambient mean temperature for 699 communities in 34 countries spanning 1986–2015 were analyzed using a two-stage meta-analysis. First, a quasi-Poisson regression was employed to estimate MMT and MMTP for each community during the designated subperiods. Second, we pooled the community-specific temporally varying estimates using mixed-effects meta-regressions to examine temporal changes in MMT and MMTP in the entire study population, as well as by climate zone, geographical region, and country. Results: Temporal increases in MMT and MMTP from 19.5 °C (17.9, 21.1) to 20.3 °C (18.5, 22.0) and from the 74.5 (68.3, 80.6) to 75.0 (71.0, 78.9) percentiles in the entire population were found, respectively. Temporal change was significantly heterogeneous across geographical regions (P < 0.001). Temporal increases in MMT were observed in East Asia (linear slope [LS] = 0.91, P = 0.02) and South-East Asia (LS = 0.62, P = 0.05), whereas a temporal decrease in MMT was observed in South Europe (LS = −0.46, P = 0.05). MMTP decreased temporally in North Europe (LS = −3.45, P = 0.02) and South Europe (LS = −2.86, P = 0.05). Conclusions: The temporal change in MMT or MMTP was largely heterogeneous. Population susceptibility in terms of optimum temperature may have changed under a warming climate, albeit with large region-dependent variations. |
| Date: | 2024-10 |
| Relation: | Environmental Epidemiology. 2024 Oct;8(5):Article number e334. |
| Link to: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/EE9.0000000000000334 |
| Cited Times(Scopus): | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=85206503397 |
| Appears in Collections: | [郭育良] 期刊論文
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| SCP85206503397.pdf | | 1260Kb | Adobe PDF | 13 | View/Open |
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