國家衛生研究院 NHRI:Item 3990099045/15258
English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  全文筆數/總筆數 : 12145/12927 (94%)
造訪人次 : 911476      線上人數 : 950
RC Version 6.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.
搜尋範圍 查詢小技巧：
  • 您可在西文檢索詞彙前後加上"雙引號"，以獲取較精準的檢索結果
  • 若欲以作者姓名搜尋，建議至進階搜尋限定作者欄位，可獲得較完整資料
    •  進階搜尋
    主頁 ‧ 登入 ‧ 上傳 ‧ 說明 ‧ 關於NHRI ‧ 管理 到手機版


    請使用永久網址來引用或連結此文件: http://ir.nhri.org.tw/handle/3990099045/15258


    題名: Real-time forecasting of COVID-19 spread according to protective behavior and vaccination: Autoregressive integrated moving average models
    作者: Cheng, C;Jiang, WM;Fan, B;Cheng, YC;Hsu, YT;Wu, HY;Chang, HH;Tsou, HH
    貢獻者: Institute of Population Health Sciences
    摘要: Background: Mathematical and statistical models are used to predict trends in epidemic spread and determine the effectiveness of control measures. Automatic regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models are used for time-series forecasting, but only few models of the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic have incorporated protective behaviors or vaccination, known to be effective for pandemic control. Methods: To improve the accuracy of prediction, we applied newly developed ARIMA models with predictors (mask wearing, avoiding going out, and vaccination) to forecast weekly COVID-19 case growth rates in Canada, France, Italy, and Israel between January 2021 and March 2022. The open-source data was sourced from the YouGov survey and Our World in Data. Prediction performance was evaluated using the root mean square error (RMSE) and the corrected Akaike information criterion (AICc). Results: A model with mask wearing and vaccination variables performed best for the pandemic period in which the Alpha and Delta viral variants were predominant (before November 2021). A model using only past case growth rates as autoregressive predictors performed best for the Omicron period (after December 2021). The models suggested that protective behaviors and vaccination are associated with the reduction of COVID-19 case growth rates, with booster vaccine coverage playing a particularly vital role during the Omicron period. For example, each unit increase in mask wearing and avoiding going out significantly reduced the case growth rate during the Alpha/Delta period in Canada (–0.81 and –0.54, respectively; both p < 0.05). In the Omicron period, each unit increase in the number of booster doses resulted in a significant reduction of the case growth rate in Canada (–0.03), Israel (–0.12), Italy (–0.02), and France (–0.03); all p < 0.05. Conclusions: The key findings of this study are incorporating behavior and vaccination as predictors led to accurate predictions and highlighted their significant role in controlling the pandemic. These models are easily interpretable and can be embedded in a “real-time” schedule with weekly data updates. They can support timely decision making about policies to control dynamically changing epidemics.
    日期: 2023-08-08
    關聯: BMC Public Health. 2023 Aug 08;23:Article number 1500.
    Link to: http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12889-023-16419-8
    JIF/Ranking 2023: http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=NHRI&SrcApp=NHRI_IR&KeyISSN=1471-2458&DestApp=IC2JCR
    Cited Times(Scopus): https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=85167370732
    顯示於類別:[鄒小蕙] 期刊論文

    文件中的檔案:

    檔案 描述 大小格式瀏覽次數
    SCP85167370732.pdf2585KbAdobe PDF118檢視/開啟


    在NHRI中所有的資料項目都受到原著作權保護.

    TAIR相關文章

    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library IR team Copyright ©   - 回饋