國家衛生研究院 NHRI:Item 3990099045/15106
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    题名: Projections of temperature-associated mortality risks under the changing climate in an ageing society
    作者: Sharma, A;Lin, YK;Chen, CC;Deng, L;Wang, YC
    贡献者: Institute of Population Health Sciences
    摘要: OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to project future temperature-associated mortality risk and additional deaths among Taiwan's elderly (aged >65 years) population. STUDY DESIGN: This study investigated retrospective temperature-mortality risk associations and future mortality projections. METHODS: A distributed lag non-linear model and random effect meta-analyses were employed to assess the risk of daily temperature-associated deaths in all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory diseases. Using the statistical downscaling temperature projections of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs; i.e. RCP2.6, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5), future risk of mortalities were projected among the elderly for 2030-2039, 2060-2069 and 2090-2099, with a 30%, 40% and 50% expected increase in elderly population proportions, respectively. RESULTS: The baseline analysis from 2005 to 2018 identified that Taiwan's population is more vulnerable to cold effects than heat, with the highest cold-related mortality risk being attributed to circulatory diseases, followed by all-cause and respiratory diseases. However, future projections suggest a declining trend in cold-related mortalities and a significant rise in heat-related mortalities under different RCP scenarios. Heat-attributable mortalities under the RCP8.5 scenario by 2090-2099 would account for almost 170,360, 36,557 and 29,386 additional annual deaths among the elderly due to all-cause, circulatory and respiratory diseases, respectively. Heat-attributable all-cause mortalities among the elderly would increase by 3%, 11% and 30% under RCP2.6, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, respectively, by 2090-2099. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this study provide predictions on future temperature-related mortality among the elderly in a developed, ageing society with a hot and humid climate. The results from this study can guide public health interventions and policies for climate change and ageing society-associated health risks.
    日期: 2023-08
    關聯: Public Health. 2023 Aug;221:23-30.
    Link to: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.puhe.2023.05.017
    JIF/Ranking 2023: http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=NHRI&SrcApp=NHRI_IR&KeyISSN=0033-3506&DestApp=IC2JCR
    Cited Times(WOS): https://www.webofscience.com/wos/woscc/full-record/WOS:001028750800001
    Cited Times(Scopus): https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=85162887277
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